A Machine Learning-based Exploration of Resilience and Food Security
AAEA members research featured in AEPP
According to the 2024 World Food Security and Nutrition report, between 713 and 757 million people worldwide faced hunger in 2023, with one in every five being in Africa. The situation has worsened over time, as the percentage of the African population experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity increased from 45% in 2015 to 58% in 2023. In today’s context, where discussions around global food security, climate resilience, and post-COVID recovery dominate the news, this research is extremely relevant. The findings come at a time when governments and development organizations are actively looking for data-driven solutions to enhance resilience in food systems. As extreme weather events increase due to climate change and the global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, this study offers timely insights into how AI can help predict and mitigate future crises.
In the recently published article “A Machine Learning-based Exploration of Resilience and Food Security,” Alexis Villacis from The Ohio State University, Syed Badruddoza from Texas Tech University, and Ashok Mishra from Arizona State University look into if cutting-edge machine learning models help to predict which households are resilient to food insecurity in the face of major crises, like climate shocks and pandemics.
The authors say, “Our study uncovered that advanced machine learning models, such as Gradient Boosting and Neural Networks, can predict resilience with up to 81% accuracy. We found that access to financial institutions, such as banks or microcredit, asset ownership (especially mechanized tools like tractors), and households engaged in cultivating multiple crops are the most important predictors of resilience. These factors give us a better chance to predict who survives and even thrives during times of crisis.”
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ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 60 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes three journals, the Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (an open access journal), the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices and the online open access publication series Applied Economics Teaching Resources. To learn more, visit www.aaea.org.
Contact: Allison Ware
Senior Communications & Membership Manager
(414) 918-3190
Email: aware@aaea.org