Workshop on Food Prices and Forecasting Sponsored by ERS (PC52)

You may register for a Pre- and Post-conference Workshop while registering for the annual meeting or by calling the AAEA Business Office at (414) 918-3190.

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Note: 2-day workshop
Wednesday, July 31 from 8:00 am – 6:00 pm
Thursday, August 1 from 8:00 am – 12:30 pm
New Orleans Marriott          
Students & ECP $25; General $55

AAEA Student Member Travel Grant Available up to $1,000  Deadline to apply is May 19th

Brief Description: Increases in food price inflation and volatility in recent years have renewed focus on the determinants and impacts of food price changes, as well as on the importance of reliable food price forecasts. The USDA Food Price Outlook (FPO) tracks and forecasts food price changes and FPO forecasts inform USDA agencies, industry, academia, and the public and rank second in web traffic among ERS data products. Even after recent refinements, the current FPO approach to forecasting food prices could be further improved by incorporating market conditions such as energy costs, wages, labor availability, transportation congestion, and market concentration, which have recently been cited as drivers of record-breaking inflation rates. Macroeconomic conditions that potentially affect retail demand, including the money supply, exchange rates, and core inflation, have only been examined in a pre-pandemic context, and it is unclear whether these same mechanisms can explain current inflationary trends. To address these shortcomings and identify new research areas, the workshop will gather top experts from government, academia, and industry to identify stakeholders’ needs, underutilized information, and the best methods for evaluating and forecasting food prices.

Relevance to AAEA Members/Meeting Attendees: Many AAEA members have already been working on food price issues, so we envision this post-conference workshop to bring together researchers working in this area, highlight outstanding ongoing work, deliver high-quality resources for members, and catalyze new and emerging initiatives in this field.

We also anticipate that this workshop contributes to the objectives of the Economic Statistics and Information Resources Committee to help members access data for research. This workshop highlights an additional opportunity for AAEA to establish a committee devoted to initiating and nourishing industry partnerships that can yield fruitful collaborations, including proprietary company data, for AAEA members.

AAEA Student Member Travel Grant Available up to $1,000  
(20 travel grants available - Restricted to AAEA Graduate Student Members and Early Career Professional Members)
Deadline to apply is May 19th

Waivers are restricted to AAEA Graduate Student Members and Early Career Professional Members. To apply, submit one paragraph (no more than 200 words) explaining why you should be considered for the waiver, and 2 questions that you want to be asked from the panelists. Complete this application form by May 19^th. The travel grant will help cover travel to the 2024 AAEA Annual Meeting in New Orleans, LA, 2024 post-conference workshop, and hotel costs up to $1000 per participant (*Required to stay at the Annual Meeting Hotel - New Orleans Marriott). All travel grant recipients will receive reimbursement for the costs of attending the workshop (receipts required). In addition, all travel grant recipients are expected to attend the full 2-day workshop. Complete and return application by May 19, 2024

Intended Audience: Overall, our intended audience includes anyone interested in learning about drivers of food prices and price forecasting. We expect the content to interest many agricultural and applied economists, government officials, and industry leaders. Given the extraordinary price growth in recent years, we expect to draw participants typically engaged in commodity markets, retail food markets, and food-assistance or healthy-eating research.

Format of Presentations (panel discussion, etc.): A mix of presenters, panel discussions, and breakout sessions.

Overview: Increases in food price inflation and volatility in recent years have renewed focus on the determinants and impacts of food price changes, as well as on the importance of reliable food price forecasts. The USDA Food Price Outlook (FPO) tracks and forecasts food price changes and FPO forecasts inform USDA agencies, industry, academia, and the public and rank second in web traffic among ERS data products. Even after recent refinements, the current FPO approach to forecasting food prices could be further improved by incorporating market conditions such as energy costs, wages, labor availability, transportation congestion, and market concentration, which have recently been cited as drivers of record-breaking inflation rates. Macroeconomic conditions that potentially affect retail demand, including the money supply, exchange rates, and core inflation, have only been examined in a pre-pandemic context, and it is unclear whether these same mechanisms can explain current inflationary trends. To address these shortcomings and identify new research areas, the workshop will gather top experts from government, academia, and industry to identify stakeholders’ needs, underutilized information, and the best methods for evaluating and forecasting food prices.

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Day	Session		Time	Duration	Time Per Speaker	Description	Speakers/Moderators
>>>>> DAY 1 - Wednesday, July 31 <<<<<<
Day 1	Registration and Coffee	8:00 AM - 8:30 AM	30 min	-
	-	Welcome				Organizers of the workshop say welcome.	Lauren Chenarides, Megan Sweitzer, Matt MacLachlan
	Session 0	Introduction	8:30 AM - 8:40 AM	10 min	10 min	Introduce the workshop and keynote speaker.	Spiro Stefanou (ERS)
	Session 1	Keynote Speaker	8:40 AM - 9:10 AM	30 min	30 min	Keynote address on recent food price trends.	David Ortega (MSU)
	Session 2	U.S. Inflation in the Context of International Price Changes	9:10 AM - 9:40 AM	30 min	30 min	Speaker on international food price trends and how they impact U.S. inflation.	John Baffes (World Bank)
	Session 3	Policy Responses to Food Price Inflation	9:40 AM - 10:10 AM	30 min	30 min	Discussion on monitoring and addressing food price inflation.	Seth Meyer (OCE)
	Session 1-3 [Q&A]	Moderated Discussion/Q&A	10:10 AM - 10:30 AM	20 min	-	Recap of presentations given by speakers for sessions 1-3.	Spiro Stefanou	David Ortega	John Baffes	Seth Meyer
	Break		10:30 AM - 10:45 AM	15 min	-	-	-
	Session 4	Retrospective Analysis on Food Price Inflation	10:45 AM - 11:45 AM	60 min	20 min	Examination of retrospective data related to food price inflation and identification of price drivers.	Mike Adjemian (UGA)	Francisco Scott (KC-FRB)	Metin Çakir (UMN)
	Lunch Break		11:45 AM - 1:00 PM	75 min	-	-	-
	Session 5	Methods for Evaluating and Forecasting Food Price Changes [Introduction]	1:00 PM - 2:15 PM	15 min	15 min	Overview of different forecasts and methods used byorganizations like Food Price Outlook, MTED, and RRED and uses across governments, industry, and the public.	Matthew MacLachlan (Cornell)
	Session 5	Methods for Evaluating and Forecasting Food Price Changes [Panel]	1:00 PM - 2:15 PM	45 min	15 min	Experts from academia and industry present various methods used to evaluate and forecast food price changes. Commenting on different forecasting models andtheir accuracy.	Raghav Goyal (LSU)	Aaron Smith (UC Berkeley)	Aparna Mathur (Amazon)
	Session 5 [Q&A]	Methods for Evaluating and Forecasting Food Price Changes [Q&A]	1:00 PM - 2:15 PM	15 min	-	Q&A and discussion	Matthew MacLachlan	Rahgav Goyal	Aparna Mathur	Aaron Smith
	Break		2:15 PM - 2:30 PM	15 min	-	-	-
	Session 6	Understanding Determinants of Food Prices for Forecasting	2:30 PM - 3:30 PM	60 min	15 min	Research presentations highlighting research to improve food price forecasting, including leading indicators of food price changes, energy prices, and factors driving prices in specific markets including beef and seafood.	Matthew MacLachlan	Kaitlyn Lee (ASU)	Jude Bayham (CSU)	Xiaoli Etienne (U. of Idaho)
	Break		3:30 PM - 3:45 PM	15 min	-	-	-
	Session 7	Impacts of Food Price Changes	3:45 PM - 4:45 PM	60 min	20 min	Presentation on the impacts of food price inflation on price markups, consumer welfare, and food security.	Lauren Chenarides (CSU)	Julian Alston (UC Davis)	Anne Byrne (ERS)
	Concluding Remarks	4:45 PM - 5:00 PM	15 min	-	Recap of day 1, preview of day 2, where the network reception is	Ricky Volpe
	Networking Reception	5:00 PM - 6:00 PM	60 min	-	-	-
>>>>> DAY 2 - Thursday, August 1 <<<<<<
Day 2	Registration and Coffee	8:00 AM - 8:30 AM	30 min	-	-	-
	Session 8	Public Data Resources	8:30 AM - 9:30 AM	60 min	20 min	Overview of publicly available data resources related to food price inflation, including BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI), USDA Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices (F-MAP), and BEA Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE). How to access and utilize these resources effectively.	Steve Reed (BLS)	Megan Sweitzer (ERS)	Ana Aizcorbe (BEA)
	Break		9:30 AM - 9:45 AM	15 min	-	-	-
	Session 9	Private Data Collection and Research	9:45 AM - 10:45 AM	60 min	15 min	Presentation from industry experts on private data collection methods and their contribution to understanding food price trends. Discussion on the challenges and opportunities in utilizing private data for research purposes.	Cathy Cullinane Thomas (ERS)	Mary Muth (RTI)	Leo Feler (Numerator)	Doug Edmonds (DecaData)
	Session 10	Breakout Sessions	10:45 AM - 12:00 PM	75 min	-	Participants will be divided into smaller groups to discuss and identify stakeholders’ needs, underutilized information, and potential improvements in evaluating and forecasting food prices.	Various moderators and topics60 minutes - discussion15 minutes - report in
	Session 11	Closing Remarks	12:00 PM - 12:30 PM	30 min	-	Recap of the workshop (what we wanted to accomplish while we were here), next steps (e.g, special issue)	Megan Sweitzer

Important Dates

Past Deadlines: 

• Pre & Post-conference Workshops (11/30)
• Invited Papers (12/3)
• Track Sessions (12/3)
• Case Studies (12/3)
• Organized Symposia (1/19)
• Selected Presentations: Papers and Posters (1/19)
• Awards (2/4)
• Travel Grant Applications - Domestic (5/24)
• Travel Grant Applications - International (5/24)