Government Relations & Washington Update
September 2023
Congress Set to Return from August Recess
Congress will return to Washington after August recess to a busy agenda with only a few legislative days remaining in the fiscal year. The House and Senate have yet to complete any of the 12 annual appropriations bills, setting up the prospect of a government shutdown if Congress doesn’t act before October 1st. The most likely outcome is a short-term continuing resolution. The Biden administration has formally asked Congress to pass a short-term funding package. Senate Majority Leader Schumer and Minority Leader McConnell have both indicated support for a continuing resolution and House Speaker McCarthy has also signaled that he would go along with that approach. However, McCarthy faces potential opposition from some House Republicans who are hesitant to extend funding without taking action on overall government spending levels and other priorities at the same time. President Biden is also requesting $44 billion in emergency spending to go along with the continuing resolution that would fund disaster assistance and the war in Ukraine.
Congress also faces the expiration of the Farm Bill at the end of September. While committee staff have worked through the August recess to advance Farm Bill preparations, House and Senate Agriculture Committee leaders have acknowledged it is unlikely that they will complete the Farm Bill reauthorization before the end of September. It is likely that a short-term extension will be considered to maintain authorities while Congress works to complete the Farm Bill.
ERS Releases Latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade
On August 31st, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) has released is latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade. According to the report, U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year 2024 are projected at $172.0 billion, down $5.5 billion from the forecast for FY 2023. The reduction is largely due to lower exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and dairy products. Overall livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are projected at $37.6 billion, down $1.4 billion from FY 2023. Agricultural exports to China are forecast at $30.0 billion, $3.0 billion lower from FY 2023, driven by weaker outlook for soybeans, dairy, and beef. Agricultural exports to Mexico and Canada are forecast at $28.2 billion and $27.5 billion, respectively, both $300 million lower from FY 2023. U.S. agricultural imports in FY 2024 are forecast at $199.5 billion, $3.0 billion higher than the revised FY 2023 estimate due to higher imports of horticultural and livestock products and stabilizing global prices.
ERS Publishes International Food Security Assessment
In August, ERS published its International Food Security Assessment for 2023-2033. ERS studied food security in 83 low- and middle-income countries and found that food security is estimated to improve in 2023. Growth in per capita income and easing of international and domestic food commodity prices are helping improve food security. According to ERS estimates, 228.9 million fewer people will face food insecurity than in 2022. However, estimated food insecurity remains elevated due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, high food commodity prices, and risks associated with the ongoing war in Urkaine. Despite challenges in the near-term outlook, food security is projected to improve in the next 10 years. By 2033, the number of food insecure people in the 83 IFSA countries is projected to be 385.9 million, 66.1 percent less than the number of people than in 2023. ERS is holding a webinar at 1pm eastern on September 7th to review the report. Click HERE to register for the webinar.